Credit: Annie Spratt via Unsplash
The second half of 2025, with a cautious view of the near future, is shaping up as a stronger ride for the advertising market in Australia.
Strip away the impact of the federal election, add in forward pacings on media agency bookings, plus a slow build in confidence, and the media market is heading in the right direction.
The latest numbers from SMI Guideline show ad spend, as measured by media agency bookings, hit a record level over the first four months of 2025.
Total investment up 4.1% over the same period last year, at least partly due to federal election advertising activity.
A big winner from political advertising was television. Free-to-air was up about 2% in April with year to date at 1%.
“Well, knock me over with a CPM,” said Ben Willee, executive director of media and data at Spinach.
“Against all odds and every LinkedIn prophet of doom, the Australian ad market has actually grown in the first four months of 2025.
“And no, this isn’t just a sugar hit from politicians yelling at each other over who loves infrastructure more.
“Even when you strip out the election spend, it's still up. Real growth. In advertising. In 2025.
“There are a lot of people hoping this is the start of a rebound, not just a blip in the charts.”
Lorraine Woods, chief investment & trading officer, Atomic 212°, said the Australian market, with the federal election spend removed, grew by 2.2% which is lower than the US and the UK where growth is more than 5%.
“This indicates that the local market is more constrained economically, but it’s also in part due to connected TV and retail media driving the growth in those overseas markets,” she said.
“We can expect this trend to evolve here in Australia through 2025. TV revenue declines are beginning to slow, with January to April showing single digit drops (excluding political spend). “Growth from insurance and wealth management advertisers in linear TV points to a more optimistic outlook than in recent years.”
Toni Frith, Carat Victoria group investment director, said the underlying market remains complex, and delayed bookings suggest advertisers are cautiously navigating uncertainty.
“Market growth aligns with industry forecasts for 2025, which anticipated election-driven uplift,” Frith said.
“Outside of government and election related spending, there are some green shoots.
The categories showing strong growth year on year - Communications (+24.7%), Insurance (+7.1%), and Banking (+9.6%) – suggests that specific sectors are thriving in, or capitalising on, broader market forces and potentially leveraging a renewed emphasis on financial security or connectivity amongst Australian consumers.
“From a channel perspective, outdoor and cinema continue to gain traction, reinforcing their ability to deliver exceptional reach and consumer engagement. A 12.9% uplift for Radio emphasises the channel’s ongoing relevance in an increasingly digital mix.
Media analyst Steve Allen at Pearman said the election and lead up created an exceptional distortion, which should also flow on to June.
“SMI forward pacing suggests this,” he said. “June is patchy, our reconnaissance tells us. Bookings dollars are coming in really late. However the media is generally making budget so far.
“The second RBA cash rate cut has brought relief (if not brought largely to the end) the cost-of-living crisis, thus conditions are easing. Consumer confidence is still bouncing around … trending up. April Retail Sales were strong, if a little patchy, and well above last year's trajectory..
“Marketers should be, and seem to be, gaining confidence, especially for the second half to come.
“Trump's Liberation Day announcements, now also appear to be more bluff and bluster, than the initial wrecking ball through the global goods trading, suggested. Australia is minor in the scheme of things, especially given our Trading balance deficit (i.e. we import more than export, the opposite with most other countries in our region) with the USA.
“The media market is no cake-walk, but we appear to be in fairly good shape and trajectory.”
Alfie Lagos, director, Lexlab, said the data shows a market ready to bounce.
“The smart move now is to stay the course with confidence,” Lagos said.
“Yes, the federal election gave ad spend a temporary sugar hit, but even without the political millions, the market is still up. That is not just noise, that is resilience.
“Pair that with NAB’s business sentiment showing green shoots after a string of bruising quarters, and you have more than a hunch. Confidence is clawing back. Trading conditions are stabilising. Consumers are still feeling it, but businesses are starting to act like the fog is lifting.
“If we dodge any Trump-triggered chaos or sudden geopolitical meltdowns, I would be backing a solid second half. Outdoor and cinema do not surge unless brands are thinking ahead. This market is not just reacting anymore, it is getting ready to move.”
Phil McDonald, managing director, BCM, said the numbers definitely reflect a slow-build in business confidence that is starting to result in a refreshed investment in brands and media.
“Over the next couple of quarters, the shifting sands in media will be interesting to monitor with traditional search being unsettled by Ai powered, long language search platforms,” he said.
“And linear TV and traditional print continuing to decline, due to a consistent shift in investment to performance video channels.
“The independent media agency sector is also a lot more bullish on media spend growth than the rest of the market for the next 12 months.
“All in all there are more positive signs in these numbers than previous periods, but they are underpinned by a cautious optimism amongst most advertisers.”
Dan Caban, group media consultant, SOLVD, said seeing regional media spend uptick alongside its metro counterparts is no surprise coming out of another heavily invested election period.
“There were certain constraints for ad inventory for anyone looking ad hoc over this period across the traditional and linear channels, and we did see changes to efficiencies with prices rising due to demand, especially across digital due to the increased advertiser pool,” Caban said.
“Obviously we expect to see overall ad spend drop comparatively coming into June, though this represents opportunity for many brands who are not just looking at costs and availability, but also, importantly, brand safety in what can be a turbulent time within the mixed political message landscape.
“While a lot of advertising budget was invested leading into the election, I think Clive Palmer spending large and still being ranked as Australia’s most distrusted politician in the Roy Morgan Trust rankings, shows that dollars and impressions doesn't always buy results, which is a good sign for those advertisers with less of a budget.”
Amy Carr, head of growth, Yango, said the growth, while boosted by federal election spending, reveals a healthy underlying demand.
“Excluding political party bookings, total calendar year ad spend remains 2.2% above last year, a testament to the market's resilience," Carr said.
“We are experiencing client growth across the board, so it's not surprising to see key sectors like Communications (+24.7% YOY), Insurance (+7.1%), and Banking advertisers (+9.6%) are up, supporting increased confidence. Record spends in Outdoor and Digital, and strong performance in Radio, also signals advertisers becoming less risk-averse and more confident in diversifying their spend.”
Ros Allison, Magna’s head of product & innovation, said strong local market fundamentals continue, with positive ad trading conditions, though tariff chaos and geopolitical havoc casting a shadow over the remainder of 2025.
“A shortened forward market is now evident, with reduced visibility on spend particularly for US based and global clients.
“We’re seeing somewhat of a natural correction back to TV, a return to spend after a year of revenue dropping faster than audiences and headline cost deflation with audience stability.
“Linear radio finally shedding some pallor in April, with the metro market +2% YTD. Podcasting and streaming radio not included in radio SMI figures, though pushing revenue gains for traditional networks, expected at +25% YOY
“OOH SMI revenue expected to close at +15% YTD, including Programmatic revenue, poorly reported through SMI, and likely at 6-7% of total OOH revenue. Large format continues to dominate, +20% YTD and now over 50% bigger than pre COVID with digitisation, site innovation and brand strength driving revenue for the format. Street furniture, transit continue to grow in line with return to office trends.”
Lee Stephens, executive chair, Meerkat Media, said what looks like a good news story on the surface isn’t as rosy as it appears.
“While $49m is attributed to election-based spending in April, The Australian (30/3/25) estimated a total election uplift upwards of $200 Million for the entire campaign period, including April. The tight $11m lead YTD for 2025 would quickly evaporate if all federal election spending was removed from February and March expenditure, as a consistent comparison.
“Connected TV and BVOD most likely account for much of the strong performance of TV as political parties finally understand the ability to tailor campaign messaging and budgets down to individual electoral seats.”
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