ANALYSIS: Outlook for the big 5 global advertising groups

Credit: Emily Morter via Unsplash

The big five global advertising groups are moving cautiously into the halfway point of the 2025 year in the face of widespread macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical tension, according to analysis of March quarter earnings.

In calls with market analysts, the senior executives of Publicis Groupe, WPP, Omnicom, IPG and dentsu used words such as “cautious” and “weak” in a show of economic vigilance.

However, AI investment is a priority, and the state of clients and healthier media divisions were main talking points.

Common themes include tariffs disrupting client planning but no widespread pullbacks in advertising spend.

Clients remain engaged but prudent, with the current June quarter is said to be a key period to validate or revise full year expectations.

Most holdcos are streamlining operations, reorganising and cutting overheads.

Here's how each holding company presented:

Omnicom: Cautiously conservative.

Posted revenue of $US3.7 billion in the March quarter, with organic growth at 3.4%, as the company faces a "challenging" economic environment.

“There has been increased volatility in the economy and the markets... We are assessing the implication of these events.”
“We are expanding the range of full-year 2025 organic growth to between 2.5% and 4.5%.”
“Still confusion in the marketplace... especially in the next 90 days, and how some of these tariffs and other moves get negotiated or do they stay in place.”

Publicis: Realistic but confident.

Reported organic growth at 4.9% in the March quarter and the company is maintaining its full year guidance of 4% to 5%.

“Clients across many industries [are] adopting a more cautious growth outlook... cuts in marketing spend as a result of the reduced client visibility in the context of US tariffs.”
“The tough environment has not materialised … with March being the strongest month of the quarter.”
“Clients are cautious but also very competitive.”

IPG: Monitoring carefully, transformation-focused.

IPG posted negative organic growth of -3.6% in the March quarter, better than expected by Wall Street analysts, as the global advertising group helped clients plan for fallout from the trade war.

“Marketers appear to be in a phase of scenario planning... assessing implications of possible changes to the flows of global commerce.”
“We’ve not seen a marked change in client activity... remain on track.”

WPP: Cautiously confident: Acknowledges underperformance but maintains full-year guidance

Posted a string of negative numbers for the three months to March, with revenue less pass-through costs down 2.7% to £2.482 billion.

“We’re not where we want to be… but we have concrete plans to address performance.”

“We remain confident on achieving our full year guidance.”

Dentsu: Confident in Japan but measured in international markets; committed to mid-term targets.

Posted a positive organic growth rate of 0.2% for the March quarter, within expectations.

The company reiterated its full year guidance of 1% growth as the Japan-based company concentrates on a restructure. 

“Macro environment remains shrouded in uncertainty… no significant reduction in client appetite, but we monitor closely.”

“We are promoting various initiatives… our goal is for all four regions to contribute to shareholder value in FY 2027.”

The following summary of the outlook for the five companies was prepared using AI to analyse the tens of thousands of words of earnings call transcripts:

Economic Outlook, Tariff Impact & Client Sentiment

Common Themes

• Widespread macroeconomic uncertainty, with June quarter seen as an inflection point.
• Tariffs (especially US-China) are disrupting client planning.
• Clients remain active, particularly in media, CRM, and data-related services.
• AI investment and tech platforms are top priorities for all five.
• No widespread client pullbacks yet; resilience noted especially in top accounts.

Client Sentiment

 AI & Efficiency Themes (Shared)

• Omnicom: Expanding Omni platform; AI integrated across workforce
• Publicis: AI-led personalisation via identity graph and Sapient
• IPG: AI Consult agent + Interact platform for media, commerce
• WPP: WPP Open at 60% adoption; InfoSum acquisition for AI/data scale
• Dentsu: Rebranding of dentsu.connect, proprietary AI services launched

Strategic Outlook: Shared Goals

• Operational streamlining (reorgs, offshore centres, automation)
• Cost discipline and restructuring to preserve margins in first half
• Push into AI/first-party data to offset cookie depreciation and drive ROI
• Cautious optimism for second half recovery, dependent on macro clarity and client budget release

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