Credit: Agshin Osmanov via Unsplash
The US upfront season for 2025 starting with glittering events in New York this week faces a high degree of uncertainty as marketers puzzle over what will happen to advertising if the tariff war escalates.
While the television networks pitch from theatres and other big ticket venues in central Manhattan, the media buyers are trying to determine whether or not advertising spend will hold up against shattered consumer confidence.
The upfronts typically bring commitments to buy television ad spots in the billions of dollars. Estimates put last year’s at $US18.4 billion and some insiders expect a flat result this year at best.
Market analysts in March started revising downwards advertising spend forecasts for the US as the Trump administration went ahead with raising tariffs.
IPG’s Magna cited a “decline in confidence” and a lack of economic visibility which may impact marketing and advertising budgets in the short term.
The most vulnerable sectors are consumer goods (packaged food, beverages and personal care), quick-service restaurants (QSR) and automotive.
Magna analysis now puts advertising revenue growth at 4.3% in 2025, down from the previous forecast of 4.9%.
Jeff Green, co-founder and CEO at Media buying platform and global advertising technology company the Trade Desk, believes the degree of uncertainty makes this year’s upfronts unique.
“When you go into the upfront and there’s a higher degree of uncertainty, it’s harder to want to commit … to put dollars to work at a certain rate for the course of an entire year,” he told analysts in a briefing on his company’s March quarter results.
“We anticipate that this upfront will be a little bit weaker for linear and a little bit stronger for programmatic and digital as a result of the uncertainty that the world is facing right now.
“So we think all of that is very good for us. I do believe that you’re going to see more and more move towards a more forward market-like way of doing things that is more sophisticated than the upfronts that were invented in the 1960s and haven’t progressed that much as it relates to the specifics of the way linear deals are done.
“I believe that the digital ecosystem is so much more conducive to a healthy and sophisticated forward market.”
However, over at Disney, CFO Hugh Johnston said the advertising market is “quite healthy”.
“Live sports, as you know, is doing extremely well,” he told an analyst briefing on Disney’s March quarter results.
“And you see that in the ESPN numbers where advertising for the quarter was up over 20%.
“As we go into the upfront season (we) see robust demand for advertising.
“I know there's lots of concern from a consumer perspective and what that might mean for advertisers. But right now, in particular, restaurants and healthcare have considerable demand for advertising.
“One place that obviously continues to be a bit more challenged is on the DTC (direct to consumer) side, not driven by demand, but driven by supply as we have new entrants into that marketplace.
“But that said, there's still strong demand therefore for Disney advertising as well.
“At the beginning of the year, we indicated that our advertising growth would be up consistent with what we saw last year, which was 3%.
“We now expect it to be in excess of what we indicated back at the beginning of the year. Overall, advertisers are certainly demanding what we can offer.”
NBCUniversal on Monday New York time will be pitching at Radio City Music Hall
“People ask every year – do the Upfront presentations still matter?” said Mark Marshall, chairman, global advertising and partnerships at NBCUniversal, in a letter to clients.
.“In my opinion, there is nothing more important today than content. And this Upfront season, NBCUniversal will present the greatest collection of content that has ever been assembled by one media company, all against the backdrop of NBC’s 100th anniversary in 2026. We look forward to welcoming all of our clients and partners back to Radio City.
"The average consumer today is spending over 13 hours with media per day, and the majority of that is across multiple screens at once.
“These consumers are not media agnostic. They are watching Broadcast, Cable and Streaming. They are watching in their living room, while on their phone…while shopping…or gaming…or scrolling."
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